Guru's Golden Picks: AFL Week 12

[AFLGuru]

Thread starter... should be back and about an hour and a half or so with the openers. Goal for season's end: +75 units (note that the goal would include the post season when line movements shouldn't be NEARLY as ridiculous due to increased betting popularity). Have some interesting games on tap for today, and I believe we'll have another pretty good week, but to ask for a repeat of last week would be nice, but probably absurd. I'm a realist... lol

YTD
Against the opening line: 30-14-1
Against that same closing line: 27-17-1

Sides Record: 22-17 (+22.40 units)
Totals Record: 22-12 (+27.56 units)
Parlays: 1-2 (+0.55 units)
1st half: 1-2 (-1.09 units)
2nd half: 10-10 (+1.85 units)
Teasers: 0-1 (-3 units)
Props: 4-5 (+2.99 units)

Composite Record

YTD: 60-49 (55.05%)
Net: +51.26 units
Actual ATS (Sides + Totals + 1st halfs + 2nd halfs): 55-41 (57.29%)

Units Wagered: 306.5 units
Units Won: 51.26 units
Net %: 16.72% profit per unit wagered

 

[KillerInstinct]

Fantastic season!

 

[AFLGuru]

Fantastic season!

Thanks KI... let's keep rolling

 

[scottw]

Grabbed the following:

2 UNITS: SJ -4 -105 LV-PHL Over 103 -105

1 UNIT: AUS +7 -121 ORL -2 -113 NAS +12.5 -105 PHL +7 -121

 

[AFLGuru]

Orlando (-6) vs. New York (5 units -105)
Philly/LV under 107 (3 units -105)
Nashville (+9) vs. LA (4 units -105)

 

[AFLGuru]

More to come... those were the glaring ones...

 

[AFLGuru]

Orlando/New York under 101.5 (4 units -105)
Georgia (-17.5) vs. Grand Rapids (2.5 units -105)
Philadelphia (+4) vs. Las Vegas (2 units -105)
New Orleans/Columbus under 101.5 (3 units -105)
Chicago/Colorado under 105 (2 units -105)

 

[AFLGuru]

I'll do write ups later in the day... for now, baseball's about to start.

 

[been_there]

BASEBALL, what do you know about baseball.....

 

[been_there]

IS/WAS a joke, please don't take it the wrong way....

U R the Guru of the AFL

 

[AFLGuru]

Okay, and since getting to watch Prior got washed out thanks to the weather, I can get started on these.

Friday Card
Georgia (-17.5) vs. Grand Rapids (2.5 units -105): Georgia enters the game knowing that it can't overlook lowly Grand Rapids. Smaller units on this game because it's been awhile since the Rampage have covered. But once again, until these lines reach 21+, I'll keep fading the Rampage. Michael Bishop's status as the starter is in doubt at the moment, seeing how he's put together three straight craptastic performances, and GR has NO chance of covering this with Nick Browder at the helm. They'll drop by at least 28 if Browder plays the whole game. Matt Nagy keeps the Force rolling along after a close call last week, as this is the easiest part of the schedule, and the trip to the Jungle awaits.

Orlando (-6) vs. New York (5 units -105): Line should be double digits at least. Orlando has one fear... Missing Idris Price. We know that Marlon Moye-Moore will be out for the Preds, but they could also be without Price again. The Preds have the max amount on guys on IR as allowed by the league, so they have no choice but to suit Price. The question is whether or not he plays. Missing Rupert Grant is key now for Orlando. Aaron Garcia comes into the game having a down year. The New York offense has been a downer all season. This is also a "who's your daddy" game, as the Preds have constantly beaten the odds and crushed this New York team ever since they moved away from Iowa (when Iowa owned Orlando). Doesn't matter where this game is being played, the fact of the matter says that the New York offense isn't equipped to beat Orlando. The WRs will have a terrible time beating McEntyre and Harris, who looks better by the week, and the line isn't good enough to keep Garcia off of his back. So just like in typical Preds form, only a 2nd half letdown will let this game stay close. Look for Orlando to FINALLY clamp down, as this game means a lot more to them than any of these other games they've collapsed in, and hold the Dragons under 40.

Orlando/New York under 101.5 (4 units -105): I think this line is 10 points off myself... and it wouldn't surprise me if the game was under 90 either... Orlando will take deep shots, but Hamilton will throw his picks... undoubtably... New York has been stuck playing catch up all year on the road, and the difference here is that Orlando offense isn't good enough, especially without a fullback, to push recovered onside kicks into the end zone very quickly. The pace of this game should be ridiculously slow, and I expect it to be played in the 70s.

 

[AFLGuru]

BASEBALL, what do you know about baseball.....

BT: Love baseball. I tail my buddy in it, and would take watching baseball over just about anything else... except the AFL that is. But with no baseball on TV until much later tonight, I've got plenty of time for this.

 

[scottw]

Added COL +2 -113 and LA-NAS under 98 -117, 1 unit each.

 

[AFLGuru]

You know, I did the damn write up for the rest of the games and my computer crapped out... of course, I didn't think about trying to copy and paste them again... but now frustrated with my computer, I'll come back and do it later. If anyone has any specific questions about any of the plays, let me know.

Scott, you've got a strong card. Nicely done as always.

 

[scottw]

I have a TON of plays. A lot of them I had no intention of playing till I saw the line, like PHL +7 and NAS +12.5 and COL +2. Just could not resist the value.

Looks like we only differ on the LV-PHL total. I based it on each team's last 3 games vs. anyone but CMB and GR. Both are allowing well over 60 a game when not playing CMB or GR. And each can score. Hope for our sake it lands 104, 105, or 106.

 

[AFLGuru]

Scott, do you have MSN Messanger?

 

[scottw]

Nope. Don't even know what it is. To me, MSN stands for Much Spread Nonsense, which we love every Tuesday and Wednesday!

 

[AFLGuru]

Edit...

 

[AFLGuru]

Scott--

You've got mail.

--Guru

 

[scottw]

So do you.